Articles, Blog

Coronavirus Epidemic Update 12: Unsupported Theories, Pneumonia, ACE2 & nCoV

February 6, 2020

welcome to another MedCram coronavirus
update and before we begin I just wanted to reach out to a lot of new people that
are joining us because of these corona virus updates we’ve been doing videos
for about eight years and we do a no nonsense explain clearly approach to
medical issues so I just wanted to be aware that we also do videos on chronic
diseases like COPD heart failure ventilator management acid-base inhalers
things of that nature so check out the rest of our channel for those videos and
also come visit us at our website so getting back to the corona virus deaths
today 565 confirmed cases is 28,000 274 interestingly the recovered is 1178 and
we did say earlier in the week to look for these to go up because of the time
period that takes the longest to have a recovered case it doesn’t take a lot of
time at all to have a confirmed case takes a little bit more time to have a
death because it takes some time for the patient to decompensate but if they
don’t die and they recover it takes time for them to recover and finally for the
virus to be undetectable then you have these recovered patients and so whereas
at the beginning of last week or even toward the end of last week the
recovered were less than the deaths which was kind of concerning now the
recovered is more than double the deaths at this point so I wanted to also
address a lot of comments especially regarding this conspiracy idea where
numbers were released and then taken down and then put back up again with
with different numbers and let’s go over what those numbers were so the deaths that they had was twenty
four thousand five hundred and eighty nine and the number of total confirmed
cases was one hundred and fifty four thousand and twenty three now if you
look at this ratio which if we take the null hypothesis and say that this was
the correct number then what you’re looking at here is more like a sixteen
percent rate of deaths to confirm cases but let’s look at it objectively so if
we take this ratio and again it’s not a case fatality rate or a mortality rate
but let’s look at that number sixteen I mean if that were the case we could look
at the number of cases that we currently have outside of China this 16 percent
ratio whatever you want to call that ratio should stand regardless of whether
the patients are in China or outside of China and if in fact the Chinese are
covering up the numbers while the Chinese can’t cover up numbers that are
not in China right so we can look at Japan and based on the current infected
numbers they are now we should have up to about seven deaths and how many
deaths do we have in Japan zero if you look at Singapore if you look at the
number of cases that we haven’t Singapore and apply this ratio we should
have four deaths and how many deaths do we have in Singapore well the answer is
zero why is it so high in China but we’re not seeing that in Japan or
Singapore the other thing I wanted to address that’s come up recently is this
idea about a stew so what is this angiotensin-converting enzyme – well if
you look in the bronchi bronchioles tubes fairly low on down close to the
alveoli is a receptor on the type to nuuma sites called a stew and it’s this
protein deep down here in the airways when you get down to the very bottom
there is a protein and that is the target of the corona virus not only is
it the target of the corona virus which allows the virus to enter into the cells
it’s also the target of SARS back in 2002 and so there’s been a lot
of about this potentially because of its
similarity to SARS we could use the same type of vaccinations and treatments that
block SARS from trying to get into the respiratory epithelium we’ll talk more
about that later but the issue is is that there’s been again another
unpublished not peer-reviewed article that looks at a Stu expression with
respect to gender and race etc etc and what it found it was a very small study
it only had about eight subjects in it but what they found was that the Asian
sample had a huge amount of ACE 2 expressed whereas the African American
and Caucasian had relatively low ace 2 levels and their conclusion was
potentially that this could explain why there was such a huge outbreak in China
as opposed to other areas with different groups and so this has been making the
rounds on the comments and I wanted to address that first of all I think a
better reason why we’re seeing a huge outbreak in China is because it started
in China and that’s where it’s gonna be precipitating the most secondly any
study with an N of 8 has to be taken with a grain of salt so as it stands
there’s actually another study that we can look at that tells us far more
so in this other study which looked at the tissue of lung cancer patients but
obviously they were not looking at the cancer itself with the normal tissue in
the lung cancer patients when they did a multivariate analysis there was no
racial differences there was no gender differences in the expression of a stew
but what they did see a difference in statistically significant in this other
study that had an N of 224 patients was that those who smoked had an increase in
ace 2 distribution now you should know that’s in China on average 48 percent of
men smoked and only 1.9 percent of women smoke and
based on statistics that go back to 2017 and so this might explain some of the
gender differences in terms of those people hospitalized in China but we’ve
got two different studies we’ve got one study that shows enovate which seems to
be making the rounds on the Internet’s that Asians have a higher expression of
ACE – therefore more targets therefore more possible infections by the virus
whereas in another study 224 different samples there was no racial differences
no gender differences but they did notice an increase in ace – protein when
patients smoked or had a history of smoking in the tissue wanted to talk a
little bit about what goes on so here’s the corona virus and it’s got these
proteins on the outside of it and these proteins are called s proteins or spike
and they interact with the cell and specifically interact with a protein
called ace – and that is the receptor that allows internalization of the virus
now inside the virus is a very large RNA molecule that encodes for all of the
proteins that are needed for this virus and there’s the s protein
there’s membrane proteins there’s a whole bunch of other proteins so what
they’re looking at is potentially blocking this interaction so how could
you do that well you could get proteins like a stew that could bind this and
prevent that from binding you could also get proteins that look like the virus to
bind on here preventing that interaction you could also put that on an antibody
and if you were to put these soluble proteins here on the antibody that could
bind onto here and this antibody would then call in the immune system to try to
get rid of the virus so there’s a number of ways that this can be looked at and
the interesting thing is that this s protein and specifically this a stew is
exactly the same protein that was targeted with SARS
back in 2002 and so there’s a lot of work that’s already been done on a stew
in terms of trying to figure out a way of preventing a virus which targets it
from getting inside and so I’ve also included in the link to expert opinions
on the RNA sequence of the corona virus this thing here whereas before they were
talking that this is from snakes they’re saying that this looks actually very
similar to bats and the fact that it also targets the exact same protein that
the SARS virus did which was also from a bat and that this corona virus is
targeting human ace too and that’s why we’re having a problem they also note
that ace 2 is somewhere lower down in the respiratory epithelium and that’s
why we’re seeing more of a pneumonia rather than upper airway symptoms that
we would see with a flu for instance so does ace 2 exist more in Asians I would
say at this point the data seems to indicate the answer is no at least with
a better powered study but is it also possible that it might be related to
smoking well it’s possible that smoking may cause a change in the expression of
these proteins on the cell surface which may make you more susceptible to getting
corona virus infections I think more study needs to be done in that
department we’ll see you next time thanks for joining us


  • Reply MedCram - Medical Lectures Explained CLEARLY February 6, 2020 at 9:05 pm

    PLEASE NOTE: Regarding the Tencent "leak", thank you for the comments – we agree there are problems with comparing the ratio of infections and deaths in China with the data from other countries (including resource differences, the possibility of hospitals getting overwhelmed, etc. but please keep in mind that severe pneumonia or ARDS from viral infections have a significant mortality rate even with the best possible medical care). We are simply offering a question (not a claim) about why so-called leaked numbers for China would have a ratio (16%) that is well over 20 times higher than the current combined data of infections to death ratio for all other countries (0.7%). Thanks again for your thoughtful comments.

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    Quick links to our other videos on Coronavirus (2019-nCoV):
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 11: Antiviral Drugs, Treatment Trials for nCoV (Remdesivir, Chloroquine):
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 10: New Studies, Transmission, Spread from Wuhan, Prevention (2019-nCoV):
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 9: Fecal-Oral Transmission, Recovery vs Death Rate:
    – Coronavirus Outbreak Update 8: Travel Ban, Spread Outside of China, Quarantine, & MRSA:
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 7: Global Health Emergency Declared, Viral Shedding:
    – Coronavirus Outbreak Update 6: Asymptomatic Transmission & Incubation Period:
    – Coronavirus Update 5: Mortality Rate vs SARS / Influenza:
    – How Coronavirus Kills: Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) & Treatment:
    – Coronavirus Update 3: Spread, Quarantine, Projections, & Vaccine:
    – Coronavirus Symptoms, Diagnosis, Treatment:
    – Coronavirus Outbreak – Transmission & Updates:

  • Reply M- Nice February 6, 2020 at 9:34 pm

    So much misinformation YouTube labed videos from content creators

  • Reply ET Baby February 6, 2020 at 9:35 pm

    565 deaths? HAHAHAAHAHAHA – the crematoriums are working 24/7 over there……add ZEROS to yer numbers.

  • Reply Mike Harrington February 6, 2020 at 9:35 pm

    Is the widespread fine particulate pollution in China a contributory factor in weakening/damaging lung tissue of older residents who may have accumulated more years of exposure & thus become more immuno-suppressed & more vulnerable to the coronavirus ?

  • Reply DARK NEWS February 6, 2020 at 9:35 pm

    Deats 5056! Do not believe them!!!!

  • Reply American meme February 6, 2020 at 9:35 pm

    It's rather shocking this idiot medcram has no grasp of statistical probabilities, healthcare quality, timing, observations, pattern or any logical thinking whatsoever to debunk the so called unsubstantiated theories.

  • Reply Jasonoid February 6, 2020 at 9:37 pm

    Thanks for the awesome video! I appreciate you mentioning the suspicious leak from Tencent in China. I do believe that without proper medical treatment any county will suffer many more casualties from this virus. The important figure is how many CURRENT ICU beds are available in the county treating the infected people? As the disease progresses it can get very serious.

    Dr. John Campbell mentioned in his most recent video that 3 people that have contracted the virus (information from peer-reviewed studies) have needed high levels of oxygen to offset the pneumonia like symptoms in the 9-10 days of the virus's progression. If people don't have the ability to get oxygen they won't make it. Rumors of people being turned away from hospitals and having to self treat at home in China are going around. If they are in need of oxygen at home they wont be able to get it.

    In Japan, the United States, and many other countries that don't have their medical systems at full utilization, I don't see this being a huge issue. Different story with China and how crazy things are going for them. Check out Dr. John Campbell, he's a great resource just like this amazing channel! Thanks!

  • Reply Joe S February 6, 2020 at 9:37 pm

    Suppress the facts> allows Pharma to pump out all kinds of untested panic Profits.
    Bio Warfare by any other name is still Global Genocide

  • Reply Mylene Stedman February 6, 2020 at 9:39 pm

    If somebody gets coronavirus and then is getting better. Can this person catch the same virus after ? Nobody is talking about that point.

  • Reply Carl Wakeling February 6, 2020 at 9:39 pm

    154,000 INFECTIONS AND
    24 000 DEATHS .
    122 – 224 BODIES CREMATED
    PER DAY.

  • Reply Maggie Jacobs February 6, 2020 at 9:39 pm

    That 16% death rate could be possible. Though we havent seen that percentage of deaths outside of China yet, the virus is new and some of the people who are just "infected" today could end up dead. Though I hope that death rate was BS, I dont think we can debunk that number so easily just yet.

  • Reply Urgelt February 6, 2020 at 9:40 pm

    You used deaths outside of China to debunk the 16% deaths-to-case ratio posted briefly by Tencent.

    There are two problems with your logic.

    The first problem is timing. Wuhan has many cases much older than those outside of China, so we can't expect deaths outside China to match the ratio in Wuhan. Not yet. Eventually, sure, but not now.

    The second problem is the impact of patient care and support by medical staff. It should be obvious to everyone by now that in Wuhan, the case load has swamped available medical care resources. I've seen videos – anecdotal, admittedly – demonstrating that infected patients are being turned away by hospitals, at times being told to simply go home. Other patients are dying while in hospital waiting rooms, awaiting a bed and supportive care. If it's true that 20% of infected patients develop severe symptoms – uncertain – and if it's true that patient care has broken down due to volume in Wuhan, we would expect the death to cases ratio to surge in Wuhan.

    But outside of China, cases are too few to overload patient care. That hasn't happened yet. If/when the case load swamps the health care infrastructure outside of China, which might not be impossible, we could expect to see the death-to-case ratio rise.

    Given how easily the virus is transmitted, how ineffective containment has thus far proven to be, and accepting that a high proportion cases will produce severe symptoms requiring patient support in a medical setting to improve their chances of survival, we might anticipate that the death-to-case ratio we see today outside of China might not hold up.

    Bear in mind that no nation has a health care infrastructure padded with large amounts of slack for possible pandemics. They're all geared to a rough steady-state influx of patients. 2019 nCOV might generate patent influx exceeding the capacity of the infrastructure, leading to elevated death rates. Nothing we know about this disease precludes the possibility.

    So we cannot take your logic as comforting.

    I am not arguing that the Tencent statistics so briefly posted to the internet are valid. (I doubt it, frankly.) But either way, it's illogical at this time to use death-to-case ratios outside of China to debunk the Tencent ratio inside of China. That logic is flawed.

  • Reply Greg Blankenship February 6, 2020 at 9:40 pm

    I heard they were burning a 100 bodies A-day the numbers you are getting are not real numbers

  • Reply qjtvaddict February 6, 2020 at 9:41 pm

    So basically corona Chan has a huge case of shinophobia damn this is a very racist disease

  • Reply Brundle Fly February 6, 2020 at 9:41 pm

    Love these 👌

  • Reply Be Vegan February 6, 2020 at 9:42 pm

    Thank you for relating to real numbers !

  • Reply スペシャル Doggu February 6, 2020 at 9:43 pm

    lol the WHO banner showing up here too…guess they think your channel is conspiracy too lmao

  • Reply Charles Redditt February 6, 2020 at 9:43 pm

    Doc makes a good point that if nCoV19 had a mortality of 16%, we'd be seeing a lot more fatalities outside of China. But I wonder more about the denominator. I do think the actual number of deaths in China is much higher than they have reported (many provinces with hundreds or thousands of confirmed cases have reported 0 or few deaths). But this doesn't necessarily mean a higher mortality rate, as the real number of cases may also be much higher. The problem is comparing confirmed cases in China to confirmed cases elsewhere is not an apples to apples comparison. Because the numbers are so much smaller, confirmed cases outside of China are much more likely to be close to the actual number of infections, as compared to any Chinese data. If I were in China now, I wouldn't go to a doctor or a hospital unless I was desperately ill and had no other choice, so there may be an enormous number of mild infections that just go completely unreported. Whereas in other countries, if I had recently been in China or in close contact with someone who had recently to China, I would immediately go to a hospital on the first sign of a cold or flu.

  • Reply YoYoMA _ February 6, 2020 at 9:43 pm


  • Reply Brendan H February 6, 2020 at 9:44 pm

    Is there a correlation between death rates and pollution levels of the various cities in China? Surely pollution would do a similar job to the lungs? Also, some Chinese cities were declaring hundreds of cases, but few deaths. (Again, not sure if we can trust these numbers.)

  • Reply NovorSec February 6, 2020 at 9:45 pm

    Its over guys, you all could go sell your food cans and hazmats suits, dont worry you all have a new apocalypsis excuse every month xD
    As i stated in many other videos, nothing to worry about, they are dying in china only mostly because of low nutrition, poor cleanse, poor medical resources…
    Se you in 5 years when the new virus apocalypse comes hehe

  • Reply Mitch February 6, 2020 at 9:45 pm

    The best channel for updates on the Coronavirus. Where others try to dramatise it this one is an honest and no nonsense channel. 👍

  • Reply Jacob Tennyson February 6, 2020 at 9:46 pm

    WUHAH VIRUS: You foolish humans can create your phony ACE 2 block system. We will mutate and bypass ACE 2 so we can deliver our babies into your lungs.

  • Reply Mar February 6, 2020 at 9:46 pm

    well this is just simplistic and wrong.
    1. cases outside of china are younger, it takes time to go from infection to being ill to developing pneumonia to dying. there might be a 3-4 week delay between china and the rest of the world.
    2. chinas hospitals are overstretched, more likely than not causing more deaths than they would have if the number of patients was lower
    3. the chinese health care system is not as advanced as that of japan, europe or the US leading to more people dying corona virus or not
    4. the chinese suffer from smog and other enviromental factors that affect their general health leading to a higher mortality rate for comparable illnesses.

    so all in all a 16% mortality rate is not unrealistic just because you compared it to countries outside of china that haven't seen the worst yet.

  • Reply Thomas Kennedy February 6, 2020 at 9:46 pm

    It's easy to treat 7 sick people in one city. 28,000 very sick people in one city is a horse of a different color. I don't think you can math that out to a fair comparison.

  • Reply chris carine February 6, 2020 at 9:46 pm

    China has never been trustworthy.they burn their media outlets and censor their internet.they are communists.i wouldn’t take tips on cooking rice from China.they LIE

  • Reply admhou1 February 6, 2020 at 9:48 pm

    I don't know if it's fair to assume patient care in China (under load) is the same as everywhere else.

  • Reply Richard Stursa February 6, 2020 at 9:48 pm

    Several references to the use of ACE inhibitors in the mix of comments with no reply. Seems logical but do patients on these antihypertensives actually show a decrease of ACE-2 at the
    alveolar site? Thanks for the presentations.

  • Reply william tell February 6, 2020 at 9:49 pm

    Regarding the 24000 people who have died in China. Could it be that there is a such a high number of deaths due to lack of care overpopulation of the hospitals lack of equipment and medical personnel due to sickness or death or just being overworked?

  • Reply スペシャル Doggu February 6, 2020 at 9:49 pm

    jesus, what is up with those china smoking stats!?

  • Reply Matt Weller February 6, 2020 at 9:50 pm

    You mentioned smoking gives you more Ace2, how about high air pollution? China has unhealthy/toxic air day in/day out. Could the air be a contributing factor?

  • Reply thejewishrepublican February 6, 2020 at 9:50 pm

    I’m a doc – so let me point out. If each country only has a few cases in the hospital – then those few patients to get intense medical therapy. But if you’re in the hospital and suddenly you have 1000 cases and you only have five ICU beds what do you thinks going to happen to the rest of those patients

  • Reply Boosted Doge February 6, 2020 at 9:50 pm

    28k jesus…

  • Reply Charlysteen Stevens February 6, 2020 at 9:51 pm

    Consider the unsupported theories judiciously. Keep them on the back burner but do not discard them or refuse to consider in advance their implications. They may prove to be a life saving heads up.

  • Reply Dean Hammond February 6, 2020 at 9:52 pm

    What are your thoughts about this virus potentially being a weaponized strain, that was either accidentally, or purposely, released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology? Apparently, they were actively seeking new researchers to work with their top researcher, Peng Zhou, who does research on bat viruses? Other news coming out says that Chinese researchers did, or may have, stolen samples from Canada, that may have been weaponized at Wuhan.

  • Reply SuperMarkizas February 6, 2020 at 9:52 pm

    the number is high in China because they aren't treating all the people at hospitals, they are left to fend for themselves at home, hence high death ratio. Im sure japan has 40 hospital beads to treat people, China – no way.

  • Reply pine apple February 6, 2020 at 9:53 pm

    is there a chart showing which races have the most Ace2

  • Reply Nik Rosales February 6, 2020 at 9:53 pm

    The same thing can be said about the official numbers that you speak of. If in fact, the numbers from China are 'real', then the cases outside of Hubei Province make absolutely no sense. So let's assume what you claim to be 'fake' numbers why are provinces in China other than Hubei showing 0 deaths? As an example, using 16% death rate you that you used as an example:

    Guangdong with 970 cases with 0 deaths. (Should be 155 deaths @ 16% and if we used 2% Death Rate there should be at least 14)
    Hunan 711 with cases with 0 deaths. (Should be 115)
    Jiangxi 600 with cases with 0 deaths. (96 deaths @ 16% and 12 deaths at 2%)
    Anhui with 591 cases with 0 deaths.
    Jiangsu with 373 cases with 0 deaths
    Shandong with 374 cases with 0 deaths.

    Even if we used a lower death rate of 2%, these provinces should still show death counts. These are just some of the provinces, the list is true all over China. What does this tell you about the figures coming from China? They are likely not accurate.

    Whether or not the numbers showed by Tencent are real or fake, the numbers from other provinces aren't adding up.

  • Reply E. Lee February 6, 2020 at 9:54 pm

    Thank you, Excellent presentations, good to see the inclusion of citation for us.

    First time I've ever subscribed to anything. Glad to see you're addressing the less than accurate info out there, lots of tin foil hats!

  • Reply mark warling February 6, 2020 at 9:54 pm

    Hello scary listening and preparing the mainstream media isn't taking it serious

  • Reply Shadoss February 6, 2020 at 9:54 pm

    I see so many channel preppers who always say “be prepared for this virus” “create a bug out kit”. It is interesting to know the science behind how the virus works and how it enters the body. This begs the question whether we should be concerned about the virus or to not bother about it at all? Considering the numbers are rising per day?

  • Reply Eduardo Augusto February 6, 2020 at 9:56 pm

    The 1:32 data is basically a farce. If you open that Tencent page in a web browser, you can change the numbers using the web browser developer tools itself, they did that and just took a picture of the screen to pretend it's real.

  • Reply Frank February 6, 2020 at 9:57 pm

    Always look forward to your videos!!! Glad I found your channel!!

  • Reply Woochee Naland February 6, 2020 at 9:57 pm

    Sad that you labeled the questioning of info coming out of China as “conspiracy.” All I can do is shake my head,

  • Reply Mika Koo February 6, 2020 at 9:58 pm

    That's not correct. For example for Dr Li it took almost a month to die. Those Japanese people infected haven't been sick for that long a time so they might still die at a higher rate like 16%.

  • Reply Stinky Piece of Cheese February 6, 2020 at 9:59 pm

    Much needed👌 Thanks.

  • Reply Emperor spektrum February 6, 2020 at 9:59 pm

    How do you know every country who has been infected is covering up to not cause panic?
    I also have hidden videos if anyone would want them?

  • Reply medan880 February 6, 2020 at 10:00 pm

    Why is it you’re completely ignoring the fact that a lot of Chinese don’t even use soap in China? Or all of the over packed hospitals and lack of resources? Certain things effect whether people succumb to an infection. Less people may be dying in Japan because the case load is low, therefore people with a severe case can get proper supportive care. Generally better hygiene may also play a role. 1 patient died in the Philippines we should look at that data.

  • Reply silshasubando February 6, 2020 at 10:01 pm

    I finally have scaring excuse for mom to deter her from smoking 😂

  • Reply David Pumpkini February 6, 2020 at 10:01 pm

    Can eating tumeric, lemon grass, chillies… help?

  • Reply Kyle Sturdivant February 6, 2020 at 10:02 pm

    That 16% death ratio would be accurate if the medical apparatus has been over whelmed with a high amount of cases. Correct me if I am wrong but the hospitalized ratio was 15-20%. If people get in critical condition and they do not have the proper care it would make the death rate skyrocket to at or above the critical ratio..?

  • Reply Hussein Abbas February 6, 2020 at 10:03 pm

    People need to put something in mind when they mention people dying from "regular pneumonia" , in 2016 4 million people died from penumonia out of 450million infected, that is still a huge number and just because someone died from pneumonia does not mean that its the corona virus killing them, it may also be another desease, people often forget other deseases during epidemics and start freaking out.

  • Reply Vermonster90 February 6, 2020 at 10:03 pm

    There is now evidence the Chinese are delaying adding new infections to the number by up 20 days. Dr Li fell ill on 12 Jan but wasn't counted as infected until 1 Feb.

  • Reply William Sickner February 6, 2020 at 10:04 pm

    Which tobacco companies have exposure to the Chinese market and how would one short them?

  • Reply Flash the Turtle February 6, 2020 at 10:04 pm

    Better care in Japan plus cases haven't been there long enough

  • Reply Jim Taylor February 6, 2020 at 10:04 pm

    I've worked with Chinese companies for decades. If they decide to solve a problem they are able to throw an enormous amount of resources at it, and culturally the vast majority of people align to the objectives. If what is happening in China was to happen in India, Thailand, Philippines, Brazil, Argentina, Peru, etc… the whole process would collapse, and not just because of finances and infrastructure. I firmly believe that there are many countries where the death toll will escalate rapidly, well past any of the numbers we see today, if they have to deal with what China is currently managing.

  • Reply Flash the Turtle February 6, 2020 at 10:07 pm

    Why lockdown a city and a country for 30k cases not buying the numbers got to be 100k or more. Supply chains are shutting down.

  • Reply G K February 6, 2020 at 10:07 pm

    Coronavirus. Disease look similar same disease history between 1960 to 1970 in Asia . This type of disease only way have to use three different
    Kits of animals. To mixed together with water and giver to person drink to help remove to disease inside the body comes out to outside the personal
    Body them can safe his or her life
    ( This type disease. Is call Koua Thor koua par

  • Reply Tipparat Duangin February 6, 2020 at 10:07 pm

    How can you trust china officials?

  • Reply Lia Angyal February 6, 2020 at 10:08 pm

    the death ratio is higher in china because there are significantly more infected, meaning there are significantly less resources per infected, medical treatment plays a key role in whether a patient with pneumonia will die

  • Reply First Name Last Name February 6, 2020 at 10:08 pm

    02:56 IT NEEDS TIME TO KILL!!!!!!

  • Reply jteague teague February 6, 2020 at 10:08 pm

    This is a great educational site for medical professionals. Found it very helpful when a nurse practitioner student.

  • Reply Green Fire February 6, 2020 at 10:09 pm

    You're comparing China deaths to Japanes deaths. Apples to oranges. Japan has better air quality, medical system that isn't overrun, and much lower case sample.

  • Reply Robert Bogan February 6, 2020 at 10:09 pm

    The chinese graph is just a graph. It doesnt look real at all.

  • Reply David Pumpkini February 6, 2020 at 10:10 pm

    Some countries have banned flights to China. Not sure if they banned flights from China too. Should a ban on imports of food stuff start too?

  • Reply Sean Santos February 6, 2020 at 10:10 pm

    The Cai study is ALSO NOT PEER REVIEWED, c'mon man. The racial groups sampled aren't the same as Zhou, tissue sampled may not be representative, etc. There are caveats in the paper, but y'all chose not to highlight those.

  • Reply jm2020 February 6, 2020 at 10:12 pm

    Third person to be confirmed in Uk with coronavirus believed to have caught it in Singapore. Uk gov, advising anyone who has been to Thailand, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Macau in the last 2 weeks to monitor themselves for symptoms. Anyone with symptoms to stay indoors and call NHS.

  • Reply Twisted Mr. February 6, 2020 at 10:12 pm

    The death rate always lags the current infected rate so comparing current number of infected to deaths is pointless.

  • Reply Not A. Sheep February 6, 2020 at 10:12 pm

    Deaths higher in China due to the flooding of the hospitals with patients and overworked and short staff, not to mention shortage of medications and having to turn away the infected to go die at home.

  • Reply ZarathustraDK February 6, 2020 at 10:17 pm

    It is dangerous to assume the chinese numbers are on point. The thing we do know at this point from inside is that Dr. Li Wenliang went 28 days from infection to death (9th jan to 6th feb). If his progression of disease is typical, we're looking at the days leading up to 20th of february before we see a spike in deaths outside China (and in China outside Wuhan/Hubei), since 5 million people left Wuhan for New years just before the 23rd of january where Wuhan was put into lockdown. 23rd jan + 28 days = 20th february. Thats why noone has died yet outside China that wasnt from Wuhan.

  • Reply greg hamilton February 6, 2020 at 10:18 pm

    1000 genome project shows 6 genetic variations that impact ACE2

  • Reply jack LD February 6, 2020 at 10:19 pm

    Now we see, smoke maybe doesn't kill us, but because of it, something else is easier to kill us, cmiiw

  • Reply Matt A February 6, 2020 at 10:19 pm

    Coronavirus did bring me to your channel. It is your clear explanations of complex issues that make me check out your other videos.

  • Reply Camper Bill February 6, 2020 at 10:19 pm

    I'm immune

  • Reply Curious Wars February 6, 2020 at 10:20 pm

    We can't just dismiss it off of the TINY sample size we have outside of china. It just isn't there yet.

    on the flip side it isn't there for China yet either. we don't know the death rate as we don't know the recovery rate. Once it's been another 2 or 3 weeks we might have more of an idea. Comparing the number of deaths to the number of infected is just incorrect regardless. First we know its got a 5-13 dayish lag time. Thats just for symptoms to appear not for death to happen. You should be comparing it to the number of infections at LEAST 5 days ago to be more fair.

    So anyways if you go by that its about 4.7% and thats being generous assuming only 5 days. If you go to the middle at say 8 days to give them time to actually get sick and die its much worse. Considering the people who died were sick WAY longer than just 5 days… its closer to 10% or so (this is where I think it is or will be once the 20% getting hospitalized wont find hospitals but that's just speculation) I REALLY hope its just 3% or less though. Either way aren't we just speculating for no reason? regardless so many people are going to die we will have trouble burrying them if we don't get a lid on it and that seems pretty much impossible… imagine trying to bottle up the flu… laughable even WITH the flu shot we have we haven't been able to get even close to that. This isn't beatable. just prep. That isn't being alarmist its being real. imagine if the spanish flu came out today and people said not to worry about it or that it would eventually be contained. Humans couldn't even stop ebola and needed help from mother nature….

    Lets not forget about Chinas forgotten generation and how most Chinese people use TRADITIONAL chinese medicine. I think you aren't taking Chinese culture into account.

    The ultimate problem is China is without question lying about the numbers. There is plenty of clear proof of that… Its only natural to be skeptical of what they report… its sad that the WHO is just all over Chinas junk right now…

  • Reply Salsa Dude February 6, 2020 at 10:21 pm

    Thanks for the info doc 👍

  • Reply I’m Not A Gamer February 6, 2020 at 10:22 pm

    I think I just heard one of my coworkers call it “Kung Flu”.

  • Reply Jo Ann Schlicker February 6, 2020 at 10:23 pm

    Is it true that people who die of this at home are not counted?

  • Reply Ev Sonelus February 6, 2020 at 10:23 pm

    maybe on Japan we dont have deaths and in China it is so high (assuming that conspiracy thing) because hospitals on china now are overwhelmed and in japaz, they are pretty empty.

  • Reply learn2 farm February 6, 2020 at 10:25 pm

    He ignored those numbers overwhelm chinese medical facilities

  • Reply Todd Howard For Real February 6, 2020 at 10:25 pm

    Man…you changed your headshot. I'm kinda sad tbh.

  • Reply King Arthur Calope February 6, 2020 at 10:25 pm

    Been watching since update: 1
    Thanks for the information you gave us. It calms me a little.

  • Reply SquishBangBlow February 6, 2020 at 10:26 pm

    The cases outside Wuhan are newer cases. It takes 3-5 weeks for the virus to kill, so the death rate lags behind the infection rate. It is very surprising that you didn't mention this basic fact in your analysis. When China and the WHO lie to us, they loose credibility. We expect more from you~

  • Reply Owlsystem efg February 6, 2020 at 10:27 pm

    2:52 It is not the same to nurse 140000 patients to nurse 25 xD … . I am not saying that I support the theory I am only saying that it would be more than understandable if more people die when you are flooded with patients than if you have 25

  • Reply masoomeh tanghatari February 6, 2020 at 10:27 pm

    Im thinking what do United Nation, WHO and other such garbages do to save the people of the world?!

  • Reply juuustkidding February 6, 2020 at 10:27 pm

    I believe that the death rate of 16% may actually be true for untreated case. Some Wuhan citizens claim that patients are being turned away due to hospital saturation and there are lack of transportation to hospital, which leads to sick people staying at home without medical attention. This is highly contrasted by Japan/Singapore where those who are infected get immediate medical attention.

  • Reply HobbsBhipp February 6, 2020 at 10:28 pm

    Thank you for your tireless work on informing us about this virus.

  • Reply Web Wanderer February 6, 2020 at 10:28 pm

    Any comment regarding lower white cells?

  • Reply frontier metals February 6, 2020 at 10:30 pm

    Widespread smoking plus bad air pollution both causing over expression of ACE 2. That explains it.

  • Reply Pete Reese February 6, 2020 at 10:32 pm

    So I'm not one for fearmongering, but I find some issues with your rationale. You suggest that if .16 is the actual current death ratio in China, it should also be .16 for ncov patients outside China. However,

    1. The infection in other countries is lagging at least several weeks behind China. This virus can take it's time, based on case reports thus far released. Up to 2 weeks asymptomatic incubation, then maybe lower respiratory symptoms, then maybe pneumonia, then maybe severe pneumonia including fluid in the lungs, collapsed lungs, perforated lungs, etc.
    We are not yet where China is. In other words, 10 randomly selected ncov patients in China would have a higher "current duration of disease" then 10 randomly selected from the rest of the world.
    2. Patients with severe ncov pneumonia need intensive care, requiring a lot of labor and materials. This is ok for 10 patients, but several thousand all at once – or tens of thousands? When resources and labor are stretched thin, as they have been in China (whatever numbers you believe), the quality of care for each person will naturally decline, likely leading to higher mortality.

  • Reply Virgil Palmer February 6, 2020 at 10:32 pm

    Your calculations do not have any validation..
    Because the numbers are wrong..

    So, you basically are wrong..

  • Reply Ron Davis February 6, 2020 at 10:33 pm

    For political and economic reasons what country would want to admit deaths?

  • Reply 賈悟遠 Antony-John February 6, 2020 at 10:33 pm

    You are assuming mortality ratio is not a function of availability of medical resources. The medical resources in China is overwhelmed so the ratio has been so high according to the leaked number. By the way, there is evidence supporting the high number. A video showed 8 death in 5 minutes in one of the 14 hospitals in China. Also the 3 cremating facilities have been running 24/7 in the last two weeks which is 4 times the usual load.

    So when you say unsubstantiated, think again please.

  • Reply Maribeth Van Duyne February 6, 2020 at 10:34 pm

    Been Watching Every Day!!
    As an RN, Thank You For ALL these Updates!!!

  • Reply James Madison February 6, 2020 at 10:34 pm

    Thanks for the work.

  • Reply Stéphane Grenier February 6, 2020 at 10:36 pm

    I know a lot of new people watching these updates don't necessarily have a scientific background and still find them very informative and interesting, and that's great. There's never a wrong reason to develop an interest for science and to want to want to educate yourself. However, I've been seeing comments in those videos that we wouldn't have seen before the coronavirus outbreak, comments that simply have no place in any serious and intelligent conversation. Insensitive remarks, conspiracy theories, comments that are likely borne of anger, ignorance or simple lack of empathy.

    This outbreak is not deserved by anyone, chinese citizens are no more responsible nor deserving of this disease than people in Sweden or Nigeria or America. It is not God's/Nature's way of punishing anyone, it is not "survival of the fittest" (or whatever it is supposed to mean in this context) selecting who lives or dies. It's simply a viral outbreak, one of the many that will continue to litter the pages of our history books. Nothing more.

    A lot of good people are suffering, and a lot of good people – many of them in China, many of them even part of their government – are working on this around to clock. No one who has enough of a brain to be interested in this kind of science should allow be ignorant enough to communicate these kind of ridiculous ideas. I hope we'll be seeing less of this as the outbreak goes on.

  • Reply Gerald's Videos February 6, 2020 at 10:36 pm

    I've a sinking feeling that the 'real' numbers are off by a scale of 10.

  • Reply TheDeleted117 February 6, 2020 at 10:37 pm

    awesome channel. subbed.

  • Reply Nux Warboy February 6, 2020 at 10:37 pm

    Around 10:04 you reference the "unsubstantiated idea" that actual data may have accidentally leaked. I'm not familiar with the reported leak, but when you then draw CFR comparisons with Japan and Singapore. Something didn't ring true with the conclusion. The part that doesn't seem to jibe is that such a broad difference is more likely found in the stress applied to health care at the Chinese location(s) in question.

    Most everyone agrees that China has vastly under reported infections, CFRs, etc, and the evidence for that are the many anecdotal reports coming out of Wuhan involving limited or no access to hospital care, home deaths, crematoriums running at capacity, etc. And so it would appear that when a finite health care system becomes isolated and subsequently overwhelmed, CFRs go up, perhaps dramatically depending. Does that make sense?

  • Reply Christopher ledezma February 6, 2020 at 10:37 pm

    Could vehicle exhaust play a part it?

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